The group stage draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup was made back in December, with the 42 qualified teams and six potential playoff winners all learning their possible route to the July 19th MetLife Stadium final. Having been seeded in pot two, Iran supporters may have been inclined to believe that they would have received a favorable group stage draw, offering a very real chance of progression. However, being drawn alongside heavyweights Belgium and Egypt, the latter being arguably the best of the pot three teams, means another group stage exit could well be on the cards.
Online betting sites don't give Team Melli any hope of winning the tournament, and considering the heavyweights heading Stateside, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised. The latest Lucky Rebel World Cup odds have Spain listed as the 9/2 frontrunners, with England just behind at 11/2. Iran, meanwhile, are rank 500/1 outsiders, level with the likes of Australia and South Africa.
But what about their hopes of winning Group G? Is that thought of as being a similarly long shot? Or is there a genuine opportunity for the Iranians? Let's take a look.
Belgium Leads the Way
Belgium are the heavy 4/11 favorites to top Group G, and when one looks at the quality running through the Red Devils line-up, it's hard to argue with their lofty billing. Veterans Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Thibaut Courtois remain. While the former two of that trio may have slowed down somewhat in recent years, the latter remains arguably the finest goalkeeper on the planet.
While Belgium is no longer in the midst of its golden generation, they do have a stellar support cast of somewhat younger stars who aim to support the last bastions of its glory days at one final World Cup. Manchester City winger Jeremie Doku and Atalanta attacker Charles De Ketelaere are at the top of that list, and both will be aiming to link up with KDB and Big Rom in a bid to catapult Belgium to a deep tournament run.
But if you're Team Melli through and through, there are certainly plenty of reasons for optimism. As mentioned, the Belgian golden generation is no more, and superstars such as Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, Jan Vertonghen, Dries Mertens, Toby Alderweireld, and Mousa Dembélé are all long gone. Plus, one only needs to look back at 2022 to see what can happen should Iran take the fight to their more illustrious European counterparts.
The Belgians were expected to top Group F in Qatar four years ago, only to be stunned by Morocco in their second group game. A goalless draw in their final game against Croatia confirmed a stunning group stage exit, and Iran will certainly be looking at those two displays in particular as they look for a way to slay the wounded giant.
Egypt Lurk With Intent
While Iran may have been somewhat content with being drawn against Belgium, they certainly won't have been happy to see Egypt selected out of pot three. The Pharaohs were listed as the third-highest-ranked team in the pot behind Norway and - perhaps laughably - Panama. Now, the Iranians have a genuine task on their hands if they are to qualify for the knockout stages.
Led by a menacing all Premier League strike force of Liverpool's Mohamed Salah and Manchester City's Omar Marmoush, the Egyptians are considered 9/2 second-favorites to win Group G. Failing that, they will be expecting to finish as group runners-up at the very least, plunging Iran's hopes of qualifying for the knockout stage for the first time into grave danger.
Egypt's last foray onto the global stage came back in 2018, and its experience couldn't have gone any worse. They were beaten by Uruguay, hosts Russia, and already eliminated Saudi Arabia, resulting in them embarrassingly finishing dead last in Group A. Eight years on, they will be aiming for redemption, potentially at Iran's expense.
Iranian Hopes
Iran find themselves as third favourites in the quartet, with the bookies positioning them as 6/1 outsiders. Displays in qualifying, however, should give Team Melli some hope. Amir Ghalenoei's side lost just one of their ten qualifiers, winning seven of them. If they can be similarly stubborn in North America, they could well turn a few heads.
Much of Iran's hopes lie on the shoulders of its fearsome strike force. Captain Mehdi Taremi is a capable match-winner on his day, top-scoring with five goals in qualifying. Meanwhile, former Zenit Saint-Petersburg hitman Sardar Azmoun has amassed a whopping 57 goals in 91 games, although there are some concerns over his fitness as he currently recovers from an injured foot. If both men are fit and firing in time for the World Cup, Team Melli will have some serious firepower on its hands.
New Zealand Make Up the Numbers
Finally, we come to the 20/1 rank outsiders, New Zealand. The All Whites were arguably the biggest beneficiaries of the World Cup's expansion from 32 to 48 teams. This year, the top team in OFC qualifying received an automatic qualifying spot as opposed to a spot in the inter-confederational playoffs, and it was NZ who claimed that honor with a dominant 3-0 win against New Caledonia. They aren't expected to pull up any trees this summer, but they are a potential banana skin that Iran will have to navigate.
