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PFDC -
Houston, With increasing conflict within members of IFF Transition Committee
to select Iran’s next head coach, Ghotbi’s "supporting cast" are bringing
his name up more and more to promote him as Iran’s National Team head coach.
Ghotbi
has shown to have good knowledge of football, and he is known to understand
the game well, thanks to his years as an analyst. Such characteristics
perhaps fits him well to take his first head coaching job in one of many
Iranian local clubs to demonstrate his true potentials as a head coach,
particularly through few years of hot and cold days.
However,
when the subject of national team head coaching job becomes associated with
his name, the warning bells start to sound as such an important position in
national football is not a place for individuals with so many unknown
factors.
Afshin Ghotbi could
possibly be a candidate to help a head coach that selects him as his
staff/analyst in a national team, but that is where his experience at this
point appoints him.
Ghotbi and
Perspolis
Ghotbi has done well with his club Perspolis. Without going to extreme in
either direction, his results at this point however, is not what is being
"advertised" to be.
While Ghotbi's role in Perspolis success is undeniable, nevertheless, many
factors have equally (if not more) have contributed to this success.
- Before Ghotbi's
arrival, a team of staff that included a highly educated trainer, Alireza
Marzban, carefully selected a set of high profile players (relative to IPL)
to form the most complete squad in IPL this season. They spent near two
months training them, and prepared them for the season before Ghotbi's
arrival.
- For the first time in a decade, a good management with strong political
ties that goes all the way to presidential office, has managed the side
issues that is usually surrounding the red and blues, and has been able to
control the financial troubles very well.
- But more than anything else, the unfair battle in IPL that currently
weighs heavily in favor of Perspolis is undermining the results that in
first glance seem to be impressive. Perhaps a more careful review of such
results actually proves Ghotbi to be far from proving himself in such a
short time to be elevated to Iran's national team head coaching job.
Especially with such important and critical tournament such as World Cup
qualifiers approaching, IFF should be very careful on selecting the
appropriate coach without being distracted by media propaganda.
Micro Review of Results
Perspolis' performance this season could be divided into two parts:
-The first three weeks of the season when Ghotbi had just arrived to take
over a team that was trained by others. They were playing different
formation and style that was not approved by Ghotbi.
-The remaining matches in which Ghotbi asserted his school and changed the
formation to repair what he saw as "problems".
First Three Weeks
Below are the quick summary of the first three weeks for Perspolis (hosting
teams are listed first):
Week 1: Sanat Naft 2
Perspolis 3
Week 2: Perspolis 2
Pegah 0
Week 3: Abumoslem 0
Perspolis 3
8 goals scored, 2
goals conceded
Goal Difference: +6
2 away games, 1 home
game in Azadi,
3 wins out of three matches
After First Three Weeks
Before listing the results for the remaining weeks, it is equally important
to list some of Perspolis players with experience in national team (in
different levels).
Roudbarian: National Team starter in Asian Cup, Olympic team starter
in Asian Games, member of National Team for several years.
Vaezi: National Team squad in several occasions.
Nosrati: National Team starter in World Cup as well as Asian Cup, Asian
Games, and other National team matches for the past 5 years.
Heidari: National Team squad in couple of occasions, Simoez' team
player(mixture of Iran B and Olympic team) in WAG
Nouri: National Team player
Rezaei: National Team player, recent Olympic Team starter in Asian
Games.
Bagheri: National Team starter for many years, played in World Cup and
Asian Cup, has played in Bundesliga and EPL, and carries a load of
experience but perhaps reaching end of his career. Team leader
Ahsoubi: Iran B starter, winner of "Most talented newcomer of IPL" last
season
Aghaei: National team squad
Vahedi: National team starter for many years, and arguably one of the
best, if not the best Iranian player in the league. The most effective
player of IPL this season up to now.
Khalili: Yet to have national team cap but a key player for Saipa's
championship last year and Perspolis this year and most likely candidate for
upcoming national team matches. The best scorer of IPL this season up to
now, and arguably one of the best finishers if not the best finisher in IPL
for the past two seasons.
Badamaki: National team player
Fatemi: Former National team player
Khorsandi: Recent Olympic team player
*Note: To avoid confusion, foreign players of Perspolis and others teams
have been omitted.
Below are the results from week 4. The opponents' starting 11 have been
listed along to compare to that of Perspolis squad in terms of players'
quality. The important factor in such comparison is to note the quality of
both sides in relative to IPL standard, and certainly not in absolute value
or in relation to international standard.
*Players of other
teams with asterisks next to them have been either national team players or
have recently played for Olympic teams:
Week 4 in Azadi: Perspolis 0 Rahahan 0
Kasparov, Ebrahim
Karimi*, Nourmohamadi, Rahimi, Mohamad, Taghavi, Tartar, Jamshidian,
Mikhtarian, Nourmohammadi, Hatami Coach: Misaghian
Week 5 in Azadi: Perspolis 2 Peykan 1
Moradi, Memar,
Khosravi, Mohamadi, Rezapour, Tahmasbi, Dariush Yazdani*, Azizmohamadi*,
Khangoli, Farazandeh, Heidari Coach: Darabinian
Week 6 in Azadi: Perspolis 3 Sepasi 3
Susha Makani*, Nisaani,
Sabri, Amiri, Mousavi, Dehghan, Karami, Shiri, Mohammadi Tahmasbi,
Khaleghifar Coach: Peyrovani
Week 7 in Hamedan: Pas 1 Perspolis 2
Tomich, Mirabi,
Khooraj, Esmail Nazari*, Mostafa Chatrabgoon*, Mohammad Alavi*, Ahmadzadeh,
Yadolah Akbari*, Khosro Heidari*, Ovooja, Ekhtiarovich Coach: Begovich
Week 8 in Azadi: Perspolis 2 Zobahan 1
Sadeghi, Ahmadi,
Mostafa Salehinejad*, Talebi, Mohammadpour, Salsali, Mensah, Esfahani,
Mosalman, Mansouri, Amraei* Coach: Jorjovich
Week 9 in Azadi: Perspolis 1 Esteghlal 1
Talebloo*, Sadeghi*,
Ghorbani*, Navazi*, Manei*, Montazeri*, Pouladi*, Jabbari*, Farhad Majidi*,
Ravankhah*, Borhani* Coach: Hejazi
Week 10 in Azadi: Perspolis 3 Esteghal Ahvaz 2
Salari, Mojtaba Shiri*,
Jalalisabet, Hassan Mahini*, Haghipour, Haghi, Hamoodi*, Bigdeli, Ramezani,
Taheri*, Meidavoodi* Coach:Karimi
Week 11 in Anzali: Malavan 1 Perspolis 1
Ghalomalizad,
Salarzadeh, Tamini, Niknazar, Maziar Zareh*, Ramezani, Sadeghi, Pourgholami,
Yousefzadeh, Khodamoradi, Rafkhaei Coach: Ahmadzadeh
Week 12 in Azadi: Perspolis 1 Mes 0
Mehdi Rahmati*,
Ebrahimi, Jalal Omidian*, Ghanizadeh, Ghanizadeh, Rajabi, Rasoul Navidkia,
Toranho, Khadabandehloo, Molaei, Zaldon Coach: Kazemi
Week 13 in Kermanshah: Shirin Faraz 0 Perspolis 0
Yousefi, Dragsovich,
Ensafi, Tabrizi, Mohammadpour, Panahi, Aghamohammdi, Zafarani, Jakiteh,
Omidi, Mikaeeli Coach: Fekri
Week 14 in Azadi: Perspolis 1 Saipa 0
Memarzadh, Jalal
Hoseini*, Traore, Gholamnejad, Zanidpour, Ebrahim Sadeghi*, Ashoorizad,
Sharifinasab, Ashtiani, Amir Vaziri*, Alvez Coach Daei
Week 15 in Shiraz: Bargh 0 Perspolis 1
Raul, Gholamzadeh,
Hashemi, AbedinNejad, Afand, Sasani, Mohammadi, Karimian, Karamian, Mehdi
Shiri*, Shahram Goudarzi* Coach: Yavari
Week 16 in Azadi: Perspolis 2 Saba 2
Tolia, GolMohammadi*,
Morteza Asadi*, Beigi, Hamid Farzaneh*, Shokouh, Adel Kolahkaj*, Bayat,
Rezaei, Abasfard, Hatami Coach: Ziaei
Summary:
7 wins, 6 ties against Rahahan, Sepasi, Esteghlal, Malavan, Shirin Faraz,
Saba
9 games in Azadi, 4
away games against Pas, Malavan, Bargh, ShirinFaraz.
Away games: 2 wins 2
ties
Home games: 5 wins 4
ties
- All away games played in stadiums with less than 20k capacity. Home games
in Azadi with 100k capacity.
- Other teams' extra motivation to play against Perspolis at best can be
traded off with playing in Azadi. Eventhough, extra motivation is not always
enough to overcome lack of sufficient talent. Nevertheless, the traveling
and fatigue factor remains to favor Perspolis.
- Not even one match has ended with more than one goal advantage in favor of
Perpsolis despite such advantages in players quality.
19 goals scored,
Average about 1.5
12 goals conceded,
Average about 1
+7 Goal difference,
Average: about 0.5 -- Only one more than first three weeks (+6)
-None of the coaches listed for other teams qualifies to be an international
coach at this point. Certainly, none can be compared to what is expected of
coaches of higher quality in international matches against Iran's national
team. So are the level of players to play against.
- Ghotbi's team is yet to play against team of players with similar quality
or more, and to compete against an international head coach with means to
prepare well against his team. Perhaps Saba, Esteghlal Tehran, and Esteghlal
Ahvaz are the only teams that come close to Perspolis in terms of players
talent. Perspolis tied two of them and won against one with last minute
score.
Avoiding extreme in either direction
It is important to mention that the above analysis does not indicate Ghotbi
not to be a "good coach". It is simply too soon, and certainly unfair with
such advantages to judge his quality at this point.
One must note that despite having many advantages in favor of Perspolis,
still some coaches of lesser quality that Perspolis has seen in the past 4-5
years could have possibly re-arranged these players, played 3-5-2(!) with
these players, and had lost a few games to struggle in middle of standing.
After all, Ghotbi's team remains to be undefeated. So, credit to Ghotbi to
produce "what was expected" of such huge advantage but nothing more or less,
and certainly not a resume to qualify him as the national team head coach at
this point.
And last but not least, one wonders:
- What if Ghotbi was in charge of Rahahan or Sepasi or some of other weaker
teams that tied against Perspolis, and instead, their coach was in charge of
Perspolis? Would Ghotbi achieve the same result or better as they have with
their weak squad? And would other "relatively" better coaches of IPL achieve
the same or better with this Perspolis?
- Can success in IPL be a good reference to judge a coach's qualification
for international stage? Wasn't that the criteria to select Amir Ghalenoei
for international stage?
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